Traffic Flow Prediction with Vehicle Trajectories

Abstract

This paper proposes a spatiotemporal deep learning framework, Trajectory-based Graph Neural Network (TrGNN), that mines the underlying causality of flows from historical vehicle trajectories and incorporates that into road traffic prediction. The vehicle trajectory transition patterns are studied to explicitly model the spatial traffic demand via graph propagation along the road network; an attention mechanism is designed to learn the temporal dependencies based on neighborhood traffic status; and finally, a fusion of multi-step prediction is integrated into the graph neural network design. The proposed approach is evaluated with a real-world trajectory dataset. Experiment results show that the proposed TrGNN model achieves over 5% error reduction when compared with the state-of-the-art approaches across all metrics for normal traffic, and up to 14% for atypical traffic during peak hours or abnormal events. The advantage of trajectory transitions especially manifest itself in inferring high fluctuation of flows as well as non-recurrent flow patterns.