Responsive Dynamic Graph Disentanglement for Metro Flow Forecasting

Abstract

The metro flow in Urban Rail Transit Systems (URTS) differs from other urban traffic flows because it is characterized by: (1) highly predetermined scheduling; and (2) interactively dynamic dependencies over the fixed physical infrastructure that vary with spatiotemporal and environmental factors. Notwithstanding the advances in graph neural networks, existing efforts fail to fully capture the characteristics and complex spatiotemporal dynamics specific to metro flow, as the innate graph-aware interactions underlying a metro flow are frequently affected by an amalgamation of: intrinsic connectivity, environmental associations, and flow-activated correlation, which usually dynamically evolve over time while containing redundant signals. We propose ReDyNet, a novel Responsive Dynamic Graph Neural Network to accurately understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of metro flow and external factors. Specifically, it employs a responsive mechanism that adapts to variations in metro flow and external influences, ensuring the construction of an appropriate dynamic graph. In addition, ReDyNet follows the merits of information bottleneck (IB) theory with redundancy disentanglement to enhance the clarity and precision of contextual spatial signals. Our experiments conducted on three real-world metro passenger flow datasets demonstrate that the proposed ReDyNet outperforms several representative baselines.