Counterfactual Identification Under Monotonicity Constraints

Abstract

Reasoning with counterfactuals is one of the hallmarks of human cognition, involved in various tasks such as explanation, credit assignment, blame, and responsibility. Counterfactual quantities that are not identifiable in the general non-parametric case may be identified under shape constraints on the functional mechanisms, such as monotonicity. One prominent example of such an approach is the celebrated result by Angrist and Imbens on identifying the Local Average Treatment Effect (LATE) in the instrumental variable setting. In this paper, we study the identification problem of more general settings under monotonicity constraints. We begin by proving the monotonicity reduction lemma, which simplifies counterfactual queries using monotonicity assumptions and facilitates the reduction of a larger class of these queries to interventional quantities. We then extend the existing identification results on Probabilities of Causation (PoCs) and LATE to a broader set of queries and graphs. Finally, we develop an algorithm, M-ID, for identifying arbitrary counterfactual queries from combinations of observational and experimental data, which takes as input a causal diagram with monotonicity constraints. We show that M-ID subsumes the previously known identification results in the literature. We demonstrate the applicability of our results using synthetic and real data.