Leveraging Correlation Across Test Platforms for Variance-Reduced Metric Estimation

Abstract

Learning-based robotic systems demand rigorous validation to assure reliable performance, but extensive real-world testing is often prohibitively expensive and if conducted may still yield insufficient data for high-confidence guarantees. In this work, we introduce a general estimation framework that leverages *paired* data across test platforms, e.g., paired simulation and real-world observations, to achieve better estimates of real-world metrics via the method of control variates. By incorporating cheap and abundant auxiliary measurements (for example, simulator outputs) as control variates for costly real-world samples, our method provably reduces the variance of Monte Carlo estimates and thus requires significantly fewer real-world samples to attain a specified confidence bound on the mean performance. We provide theoretical analysis characterizing the variance and sample-efficiency improvement, and demonstrate empirically in autonomous driving and quadruped robotics settings that our approach achieves high-probability bounds with markedly reduced sample complexity. Our technique can lower the real-world testing burden for validating the performance of the stack, thereby enabling more efficient and cost-effective experimental evaluation of robotic systems.