Predicting COVID-19 Case Status from Self-Reported Symptoms and Behaviors Using Data from a Massive Online Survey

Abstract

With the varying availability of RT-PCR testing for COVID-19 across time and location, there is a need for alternative methods of predicting COVID-19 case status. In this study, multiple machine learning (ML) models were trained and assessed for their ability to accurately predict the COVID-19 case status using US COVID-19 Trends and Impact Survey (CTIS) data. The CTIS includes information on testing, symptoms, demographics, behaviors, and vaccination status. The best performing model was XGBoost, which achieved an F1 score of ~94% in predicting whether an individual was COVID-19 positive or negative. This is a notable improvement on existing models for predicting COVID-19 case status and demonstrates the potential for ML methods to provide policy-relevant estimates.

Cite

Text

Srivastava et al. "Predicting COVID-19 Case Status from Self-Reported Symptoms and Behaviors Using Data from a Massive Online Survey." ICLR 2023 Workshops: MLGH, 2023.

Markdown

[Srivastava et al. "Predicting COVID-19 Case Status from Self-Reported Symptoms and Behaviors Using Data from a Massive Online Survey." ICLR 2023 Workshops: MLGH, 2023.](https://mlanthology.org/iclrw/2023/srivastava2023iclrw-predicting/)

BibTeX

@inproceedings{srivastava2023iclrw-predicting,
  title     = {{Predicting COVID-19 Case Status from Self-Reported Symptoms and Behaviors Using Data from a Massive Online Survey}},
  author    = {Srivastava, Mashrin and Reinhart, Alex and Mejia, Robin},
  booktitle = {ICLR 2023 Workshops: MLGH},
  year      = {2023},
  url       = {https://mlanthology.org/iclrw/2023/srivastava2023iclrw-predicting/}
}