State-Space Inference for Non-Linear Latent Force Models with Application to Satellite Orbit Prediction

Abstract

Latent force models (LFMs) are flexible models that combine mechanistic modelling principles (i.e., physical models) with non-parametric data-driven components. Several key applications of LFMs need non-linearities, which results in analytically intractable inference. In this work we show how non-linear LFMs can be represented as non-linear white noise driven state-space models and present an efficient non-linear Kalman filtering and smoothing based method for approximate state and parameter inference. We illustrate the performance of the proposed methodology via two simulated examples, and apply it to a real-world problem of long-term prediction of GPS satellite orbits.

Cite

Text

Hartikainen et al. "State-Space Inference for Non-Linear Latent Force Models with Application to Satellite Orbit Prediction." International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012.

Markdown

[Hartikainen et al. "State-Space Inference for Non-Linear Latent Force Models with Application to Satellite Orbit Prediction." International Conference on Machine Learning, 2012.](https://mlanthology.org/icml/2012/hartikainen2012icml-state/)

BibTeX

@inproceedings{hartikainen2012icml-state,
  title     = {{State-Space Inference for Non-Linear Latent Force Models with Application to Satellite Orbit Prediction}},
  author    = {Hartikainen, Jouni and Seppänen, Mari and Särkkä, Simo},
  booktitle = {International Conference on Machine Learning},
  year      = {2012},
  url       = {https://mlanthology.org/icml/2012/hartikainen2012icml-state/}
}