Predicting Choice with Set-Dependent Aggregation

Abstract

Providing users with alternatives to choose from is an essential component of many online platforms, making the accurate prediction of choice vital to their success. A renewed interest in learning choice models has led to improved modeling power, but most current methods are either limited in the type of choice behavior they capture, cannot be applied to large-scale data, or both. Here we propose a learning framework for predicting choice that is accurate, versatile, and theoretically grounded. Our key modeling point is that to account for how humans choose, predictive models must be expressive enough to accommodate complex choice patterns but structured enough to retain statistical efficiency. Building on recent results in economics, we derive a class of models that achieves this balance, and propose a neural implementation that allows for scalable end-to-end training. Experiments on three large choice datasets demonstrate the utility of our approach.