Variational Counterfactual Intervention Planning to Achieve Target Outcomes

Abstract

A key challenge in personalized healthcare is identifying optimal intervention sequences to guide temporal systems toward target outcomes, a novel problem we formalize as counterfactual target achievement. In addressing this problem, directly adopting counterfactual estimation methods face compounding errors due to the unobservability of counterfactuals. To overcome this, we propose Variational Counterfactual Intervention Planning (VCIP), which reformulates the problem by modeling the conditional likelihood of achieving target outcomes, implemented through variational inference. By leveraging the g-formula to bridge the gap between interventional and observational log-likelihoods, VCIP enables reliable training from observational data. Experiments on both synthetic and real-world datasets show that VCIP significantly outperforms existing methods in target achievement accuracy.