Forecasting and Assessing the Impact of Artificial Intelligence on Society

Abstract

At the present stage of research in artificial intelligence, machines are still remote from achieving a level of intelligence comparable in complexity to human thought. As computer applications become more sophisticated, however, and thus more influential in human affairs, it becomes increasingly important to understand both the capabilities and limitations of machine Intelligence and its potential impact on society. To this end, the artificial intelligence field was examined in a systematic manner. The study was divided into two parts: (1) Delineation of areas of artificial intelli gence, and postulatio of hypothetical products resulting from progress in the field, and (2) A judgmental portion, which involved applications and implications of the products to society. For the latter purpose, a Delphi study was conducted among experts in the artificial intelligence field to solicit their opinion concerning prototype and commercial dates for the products, and the possibility and desirability of their applications and implications.