Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans

Abstract

Given a hierarchical plan (or schedule) with uncertain task times, we may need to determine the probability that a given plan will satisfy a given deadline. This problem is shown to be NP-hard for series-parallel hierarchies. We provide a polynomial-time approximation algorithm for it. Computing the expected makespan of an hierarchical plan is also shown to be NP-hard. We examine the approximation bounds empirically and demonstrate where our scheme is superior to sampling and to exact computation.

Cite

Text

Cohen et al. "Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans." International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2015.

Markdown

[Cohen et al. "Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans." International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2015.](https://mlanthology.org/ijcai/2015/cohen2015ijcai-estimating/)

BibTeX

@inproceedings{cohen2015ijcai-estimating,
  title     = {{Estimating the Probability of Meeting a Deadline in Hierarchical Plans}},
  author    = {Cohen, Liat and Shimony, Solomon Eyal and Weiss, Gera},
  booktitle = {International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence},
  year      = {2015},
  pages     = {1551-1557},
  url       = {https://mlanthology.org/ijcai/2015/cohen2015ijcai-estimating/}
}