SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System
Abstract
Forecasting of geopolitical events is a notoriously difficult task, with experts failing to significantly outperform a random baseline across many types of forecasting events. One successful way to increase the performance of forecasting tasks is to turn to crowdsourcing: leveraging many forecasts from non-expert users. Simultaneously, advances in machine learning have led to models that can produce reasonable, although not perfect, forecasts for many tasks. Recent efforts have shown that forecasts can be further improved by ``hybridizing'' human forecasters: pairing them with the machine models in an effort to combine the unique advantages of both. In this demonstration, we present Synergistic Anticipation of Geopolitical Events (SAGE), a platform for human/computer interaction that facilitates human reasoning with machine models.
Cite
Text
Morstatter et al. "SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System." International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2019. doi:10.24963/IJCAI.2019/955Markdown
[Morstatter et al. "SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System." International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence, 2019.](https://mlanthology.org/ijcai/2019/morstatter2019ijcai-sage/) doi:10.24963/IJCAI.2019/955BibTeX
@inproceedings{morstatter2019ijcai-sage,
title = {{SAGE: A Hybrid Geopolitical Event Forecasting System}},
author = {Morstatter, Fred and Galstyan, Aram and Satyukov, Gleb and Benjamin, Daniel and Abeliuk, Andrés and Mirtaheri, Mehrnoosh and Hossain, K. S. M. Tozammel and Szekely, Pedro A. and Ferrara, Emilio and Matsui, Akira and Steyvers, Mark and Bennett, Stephen and Budescu, David V. and Himmelstein, Mark and Ward, Michael D. and Beger, Andreas and Catasta, Michele and Sosic, Rok and Leskovec, Jure and Atanasov, Pavel and Joseph, Regina and Sethi, Rajiv and Abbas, Ali E.},
booktitle = {International Joint Conference on Artificial Intelligence},
year = {2019},
pages = {6557-6559},
doi = {10.24963/IJCAI.2019/955},
url = {https://mlanthology.org/ijcai/2019/morstatter2019ijcai-sage/}
}