Risk Guarantee Prediction in Networked-Loans

Abstract

The guaranteed loan is a debt obligation promise that if one corporation gets trapped in risks, its guarantors will back the loan. When more and more companies involve, they subsequently form complex networks. Detecting and predicting risk guarantee in these networked-loans is important for the loan issuer. Therefore, in this paper, we propose a dynamic graph-based attention neural network for risk guarantee relationship prediction (DGANN). In particular, each guarantee is represented as an edge in dynamic loan networks, while companies are denoted as nodes. We present an attention-based graph neural network to encode the edges that preserve the financial status as well as network structures. The experimental result shows that DGANN could significantly improve the risk prediction accuracy in both the precision and recall compared with state-of-the-art baselines. We also conduct empirical studies to uncover the risk guarantee patterns from the learned attentional network features. The result provides an alternative way for loan risk management, which may inspire more work in the future.