Incompletely Known Sample Spaces: Models and Human Intuitions
Abstract
This paper surveys models and human intuitions about incompletely known “sample spaces” ($\Omega$). Given that there are very few guidelines for how best to form such beliefs when $\Omega$ is incompletely known, and there is very little research on the psychology behind beliefs about $\Omega$, this survey is preliminary and brings in ideas and models from probability and statistics, biology, and psychology. Pilot experimental studies of how people estimate the cardinality of $\Omega$ when given sample information from it are presented, demonstrating that to a surprising extent their estimates correspond with those produced by normative statistical models. The paper concludes by outlining future directions for a research program on this topic.
Cite
Text
Smithson. "Incompletely Known Sample Spaces: Models and Human Intuitions." Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, 2019.Markdown
[Smithson. "Incompletely Known Sample Spaces: Models and Human Intuitions." Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications, 2019.](https://mlanthology.org/isipta/2019/smithson2019isipta-incompletely/)BibTeX
@inproceedings{smithson2019isipta-incompletely,
title = {{Incompletely Known Sample Spaces: Models and Human Intuitions}},
author = {Smithson, Michael},
booktitle = {Proceedings of the Eleventh International Symposium on Imprecise Probabilities: Theories and Applications},
year = {2019},
pages = {367-376},
volume = {103},
url = {https://mlanthology.org/isipta/2019/smithson2019isipta-incompletely/}
}