A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction

Abstract

Conformal prediction uses past experience to determine precise levels of confidence in new predictions. Given an error probability ε, together with a method that makes a prediction ŷ of a label y, it produces a set of labels, typically containing ŷ, that also contains y with probability 1 – ε. Conformal prediction can be applied to any method for producing ŷ: a nearest-neighbor method, a support-vector machine, ridge regression, etc.

Cite

Text

Shafer and Vovk. "A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction." Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2008.

Markdown

[Shafer and Vovk. "A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction." Journal of Machine Learning Research, 2008.](https://mlanthology.org/jmlr/2008/shafer2008jmlr-tutorial/)

BibTeX

@article{shafer2008jmlr-tutorial,
  title     = {{A Tutorial on Conformal Prediction}},
  author    = {Shafer, Glenn and Vovk, Vladimir},
  journal   = {Journal of Machine Learning Research},
  year      = {2008},
  pages     = {371-421},
  volume    = {9},
  url       = {https://mlanthology.org/jmlr/2008/shafer2008jmlr-tutorial/}
}