Prequential and Cross-Validated Regression Estimation

Abstract

Prequential model selection and delete-one cross-validation are data-driven methodologies for choosing between rival models on the basis of their predictive abilities. For a given set of observations, the predictive ability of a model is measured by the model's accumulated prediction error and by the model's average-out-of-sample prediction error, respectively, for prequential model selection and for cross-validation. In this paper, given i.i.d. observations, we propose nonparametric regression estimators—based on neural networks—that select the number of “hidden units” (or “neurons”) using either prequential model selection or delete-one cross-validation. As our main contributions: (i) we establish rates of convergence for the integrated mean-squared errors in estimating the regression function using “off-line” or “batch” versions of the proposed estimators and (ii) we establish rates of convergence for the time-averaged expected prediction errors in using “on-line” versions of the proposed estimators. We also present computer simulations (i) empirically validating the proposed estimators and (ii) empirically comparing the proposed estimators with certain novel prequential and cross-validated “mixture” regression estimators.