Physics-Aware Spatiotemporal Causal Graph Network for Forecasting with Limited Data

Abstract

Spatiotemporal models have drawn significant interest recently due to their widespread applicability across many domains. These models are often made more practically useful by incorporating beneficial inductive biases, such as laws or symmetries from domain-relevant physics equations. This "physics-awareness" provides an interpretable means of grounding otherwise purely data-driven models, improving robustness and boosting performance in settings with limited data. In this work, we view physical dynamics as domain knowledge that captures fundamental causal relationships across space and time, and can be effectively leveraged by our proposed physics-aware spatiotemporal causal graph network (P-STCGN). We firstly describe a means of deriving causal relationships from spatiotemporal data, serving as physics-aware labels to learn a causal structure via a dedicated neural module. We then formulate a forecasting module that can operate under this causal structure, producing predictions that are guided by physics-aware cause-effect relationships among modeled variables. Extensive experimentation demonstrates that our method is robust to noisy and limited data, outperforming existing models across a variety of challenging synthetic tasks and benchmark datasets. We further evaluate our method on real-world graph signals and observe superior forecasting performance, achieved by effectively utilizing causal signals from prior physics knowledge.