Are Data Embeddings Effective in Time Series Forecasting?

Abstract

Time series forecasting plays a crucial role in many real-world applications, and numerous complex forecasting models have been proposed in recent years. Despite their architectural innovations, most state-of-the-art models report only marginal improvements—typically just a few thousandths in standard error metrics. These models often incorporate complex data embedding layers, which typically transform raw inputs into higher-dimensional representations to enhance accuracy. But are data embedding techniques actually effective in time series forecasting? Through extensive ablation studies across fifteen state-of-the-art models on multiple benchmark datasets, we find that removing data embedding layers from many state-of-the-art models does not degrade forecasting performance—in many cases, it improves both accuracy and computational efficiency. The gains from removing embedding layers often exceed the performance differences typically reported between competing state-of-the-art models.