A Bayesian Perspective on Confidence

Abstract

We present a representation of partial confidence in belief and preference that is consistent with the tenets of decision-theory. The fundamental insight underlying the representation is that if a person is not completely confident in a probability or utility assessment, additional modeling of the assessment may improve decisions to which it is relevant. We show how a traditional decision-analytic approach can be used to balance the benefits of additional modeling with associated costs. The approach can be used during knowledge acquisition to focus the attention of a knowledge engineer or expert on parts of a decision model that deserve additional refinement.

Cite

Text

Heckerman and Jimison. "A Bayesian Perspective on Confidence." Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1987.

Markdown

[Heckerman and Jimison. "A Bayesian Perspective on Confidence." Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, 1987.](https://mlanthology.org/uai/1987/heckerman1987uai-bayesian/)

BibTeX

@inproceedings{heckerman1987uai-bayesian,
  title     = {{A Bayesian Perspective on Confidence}},
  author    = {Heckerman, David and Jimison, Holly Brügge},
  booktitle = {Conference on Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence},
  year      = {1987},
  pages     = {149-160},
  url       = {https://mlanthology.org/uai/1987/heckerman1987uai-bayesian/}
}